SHANGHAI, Jan. 26 (SMM) – SMM surveyed 30 market participants to find that 4 are bullish toward nickel price this week, 12 are neutral and 14 are bearish.

 The 13% optimistic ones expect LME nickel to rise to USD 8,650-8,900/mt. The US Federal Reserve is not expected to raise interest rate at today’s policy meeting. Yuan’s devaluation appeared to have been arrested. The People’s Bank of China injected RMB 1.7 trillion loans in the first half of January. The import window has been closed, while China’s NPI producers held back goods. When combined with falling nickel ore inventories sin China, LME nickel hit a near-term high last week. A large number of longs are expected to enter the market at lows. SHFE 1605 nickel is expected to breach RMB 70,000/mt.

The 40% see LME nickel range between USD 8,500-8,650/mt. Global market is still languishing, and the stock markets are still disappointing. Falling inventories in China is due mainly to pre-holiday stock-building. As consumption softens ahead of Chinese New Year holiday, LME nickel should consolidate at current levels. SHFE 1605 nickel will move between RMB 68,800-69,500/mt.

47% are bearish, seeing LME nickel to fall to USD 8,400-8,500/mt. The US dollar index surged, while rebound in crude oil is limited. Recent rallies in nickel are mainly helped by liquidity injection by the PBOC. LME nickel inventories are still on the rise. Demand is still weak. As stainless steel plants eliminate capacity, LME nickel should fall. SHFE 1605 nickel is expected to drop to RMB 67,500-68,500/mt.